Commodity Markets
BROWNING
As I’ ve said countless times, this is what makes this set of NASS nonsense the Kardashians of USDA reports. They have no value, add nothing of substance, but are popular.
What Can We Do?
Ŋ When we see folks blindly quoting planting progress( or whatever number) as X %, ask them“ Of what?” How do you have a percent of something when you don’ t know what that something is? Oddly enough, nobody has ever answered that question when I’ ve posed it to them.
Ŋ When we see, hear or read a reporter / analyst / commentator start quoting this nonsense, turn them off. Or follow someone else. Get your ag-related news from a group that doesn’ t start every piece with,“ The market did this because USDA said that....” It’ s difficult, but I know of some out there.
Ŋ If your broker / adviser happens to be one who has taken a public stance by saying,“ I’ m a big fan of NASS’ weekly reports...,” you might want to find someone else to do business with. The bottom line is if someone you trust with your money and positions is promoting completely madeup numbers, it isn’ t good.
I know one of the responses to this piece will be,“ But traders trade these numbers!” No, they don’ t. I have talked to a number of investment firms, algorithm coders and so on in the industry and not one single time have I been told they even look at NASS’ numbers.
On the other hand, as the years have gone by I’ ve heard more discussion and received more questions from those same groups on how to read national cash indexes, basis markets and futures spreads to better understand real market fundamentals.
But few in agriculture care about those things. Not while they can keep up with those who are keeping up with the Kardashians.
About the Author
Darin Newsom has been working with markets in general for nearly 40 years, dating back to Black Monday 1987. Over that time, he has worked in local grain elevators, first dumping trucks then as a merchandiser, before becoming a commodity broker and advisor. That eventually led him to DTN where he spent 15 years as the company’ s senior market analyst before going out on his own with Darin Newsom Analysis, Inc.
These days, he also has the title of Senior Analyst for Barchart. Along the way, he has developed his own way of analyzing markets in every sector, always proudly reminding people that he is not an economist.
April 2025 | www. FarmersHotLine. com | 23