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A quick Google search of the major industries for the borough had returned a bit of a surprise, as Accommodation and Food Services came in third, with Health Care and Social Assistance leading the way. This could have been tied to Groundhog Day given the number of tourists likely suffering from frostbite and depression given that Punxsutawney Phil has seen his shadow( indicating six more weeks of winter) roughly twice as often as he did not over the past 20 years.

Some meteorologists had been driven to the brink of sanity by the hoopla surrounding Groundhog Day. Their argument was that there was no science behind the festivities, and when Phil predicted six more weeks of winter all it meant was that winter was supposed to end at roughly the same time as the spring equinox.

In other words, Phil tended to predict winter would end when— well— the winter season came to an end.

Those who have tuned in to watch the festivities in recent years likely noticed the sky was usually covered by heavy gray winter clouds, meaning there was no sun to cast a shadow. Additionally, floodlights surrounded the stage where it all took place, washing out any possibility of Phil seeing any shadow— his or anyone else’ s.

Out of curiosity, I tracked the correlation of the outcome of Groundhog Day— shadow or no shadow— to the United States Department of Agriculture’ s( USDA)“ final” planted acres of corn and soybeans. Interestingly enough, when Phil did not see his shadow, predicting an early spring, U. S. corn acres tended to increase by 2 % from the previous year. On the other hand, U. S. soybean acres tended to decrease by 1 %.

When Phil saw his shadow, meaning a longer winter, U. S. soybean planted acres tended to increase by 3 % while corn planted areas decreased by 2 %. Naturally, there are outlier years, most notably the prior two.

In 2023, Phil saw his shadow, yet when the USDA released its“ final” acreage numbers in January 2024, U. S. corn planted areas swelled by 7 %, while soybean planter areas contracted by 4.5 %.

Last year, Phil did not see his shadow, yet corn acres were down 4 % while soybean acres supposedly increased by 4 %. That was convenient, right?

For many in U. S. agriculture, the majority only believed what the USDA told them. When it came to planted acres, the bulk of the industry waited anxiously for the end of the March Prospective Plantings report.

To explain my thoughts, as if you haven’ t already guessed, the definition of“ prospective” in the dictionary I’ ve had on my desk for more than 40 years is: adjective 1. Likely to happen.; expected. 2. Likely to become or be.

26 | 515-574-2341 | 515-574-2189 | February 2025