Weather Watch
Some forecast models, according to Pastelok, show above average water temperatures this summer for the Atlantic.
“ The water can cool during the winter and spring, based on some factors,” said Pastelok.“ It may be a slower recovery. If this occurs, later in the summer could be warmer and drier, perhaps some late stress for crops in the eastern U. S. But the tropics could change that, which is too difficult to determine this far out.” He added that the U. S. is not anticipating an El Nino or La Nina mid-spring through at least early fall, providing less impact on the weather pattern.
There is a chance, however, that the Polar Vortex could shift south, bringing more cold to parts of the U. S. for early spring, possibly delaying spring planting. Pastelok added that this is difficult to predict, but the current weather patterns are consistent with previous years.
Late Frost Risks
For planting season, it’ s important that farmers keep an eye on frost dates, especially late frosts, to protect their crops. The Farmers Almanac shared these average frost dates that vary by state and should be closely monitored before planting season arrives.
According to AccuWeather, late frost risk is a bit higher for the Southeast and mid-Atlantic, with a near average in the Northeast.
Heatwave Risks
Risk is higher for the Southwest due to below-average winter moisture, an early push of warm to hot weather and a storm track well to the north. This could extend at times into the Plains.
Drought Risks Drought conditions could be severe in the Southwest and western Plains, leading to early fire risks.“ Watch for water restrictions early in the year,” advised Pastelok.
Climate Change Impacts on 2025
Looking into 2025, the effects of climate change are becoming increasingly evident. With rising temperatures and more frequent extreme weather, an AccuWeather meteorologist weighs in on what to expect in the year ahead.
“ I do not see any dramatic shifts in the overall trends that we have been seeing in recent decades,” explained Brett Anderson, AccuWeather’ s senior meteorologist and climate expert.“ Expect many more new record-high temperatures compared to recordlow temperatures.”
He continued, stating that extreme weather events such as intense, long-duration heat waves, drought and flooding rainfall will likely be a common occurrence in many parts of the country once again.
“ We expect ocean water temperatures to remain abnormally high from the Gulf to the Atlantic coast,” he added,“ which can add moisture for bigger storms and lead to even high humidity during the summer and fall.”
For growing zones, no real shifts are expected for the short term, as there can still be a period of extreme low temperatures in many regions, despite climate change reducing that risk. However, beyond the year 2070, many regions, especially across the northern two-thirds of the U. S., may see a significant change.
“ These regions may see their plant hardiness zone number increase by two or even three, as man-made warming continues,”
Paul Pastelok’ s Trends to Watch
Here are a few trends Pastelok advises farmers to keep an eye on this year: Ŋ In the Southwest and southwest Plains, soil moisture may run below average during the planting season.
Ŋ For the Midwest and Ohio Valley, good soil moisture is expected.“ The question, however, is will temperatures still warm in April on time despite increased rainfall,” he explained.“ We will have a milder April, which is good.”
Ŋ Looking at the Southeast, Pastelok warns farmers to be alert during the tropical season. Potential flooding could be an issue from strong storms if water temperatures are warm again.
Ŋ In the Northeast, snowfall is projected to be below average this winter.“ There could be another replay to dry conditions late summer into fall for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.”
explained Anderson.“ This will have major impacts on agriculture, leading to a potential major shift northward of some crops.”
In terms of global average temperature, Anderson expects 2025 to very likely rank in the top 10 warmest on record, if not the top five. But it may not be quite as warm as 2024.
Advice for Farmers
As farmers plan for the 2025 growing season, AccuWeather expert meteorologists are urging farmers, families and businesses to prepare for a future with more frequent, extreme and costly weather events and disasters.
In 2024, hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires, flooding and extreme heat cost Americans more than $ 500 billion in total damage and economic loss. This accounted for nearly 2 % of the national gross domestic product.
February 2025 | www. FarmersHotLine. com | 9