Commodity Markets
‘ BRACE’ Yourself for May
April Showers Dull Spring Speculation
As the old rhyme goes,“ April showers bring May flowers.” It’ s a reminder that sometimes the simplest things answer the most intensely debated questions.
This time through the calendar, much of the chatter from the BRACE( Brokers / Reporters / Analysts / Commentators / Economists) industry was about the slow pace of spring planting of the 2025 U. S. corn and soybean crops based on the National Agricultural Statistic Service’ s weekly round of completely made-up crop progress numbers.
As you may recall from last month’ s piece,“ The Return of the Kardashians,” I don’ t give a rat’ s hind quarters about these updates. Everything I need to know about supply and demand can be found in the markets themselves, and in the case of corn and soybeans, it has been easy to see the commercial side of these markets have not been overly concerned about weather.
From Dry to Damp: April’ s Shift
“ Let’ s start at the beginning. A very good place to start.” A look at the Drought Monitor maps from late April and late March, we see most of the readings across the U. S. Midwest were erased( or at least mitigated) last month. Yes, the U. S. Plains— from the northern border of North Dakota through the southern border of Texas— didn’ t change much during April., but it’ s the U. S. Plains, the Great American Desert. It nearly always shows drought readings of some degree. The bottom line, though, is Watson looks at the heart of the U. S. Midwest, most notably the three“ I” states – Iowa, Illinois and Indiana— before buy or sell orders are triggered. As the U. S. headed toward May, those three states were showing low levels of drought at worst. I hear your questions.“ If you( meaning me) are antigovernment reports in general, United States Department of Agriculture( USDA)-related reports in particular, why are you talking about the U. S. Drought Monitor maps? Do you( meaning me) not know these are put together through a partnership of numerous government agencies?!”
Yes. I know all of that. Do I rely fully on U. S. Drought Monitor updates? Absolutely not. It’ s like weekly Commodity Futures Trade Commission Commitments of Traders reports; I use them to possibly confirm what I am already seeing in
18 | 515-574-2203 | 515-574-2189 | May 2025