Commodity Markets going to be as large as it might’ ve been.
From early September through late October, the Dec-March spread dropped to 44 % of calculated full commercial carry, again a reflection of lower yields and production than expected.
Further out in the marketing year, we see the May 2026-July 2026 futures spread moved from 35 % in early July( 2025) to 24 % through early October. This tells us merchandisers are concerned about sourcing supplies to meet demand during the spring of 2026 as the next crop gets planted. This was similar to what we saw a year ago, leading to a rally by the May 2025 futures contract from its August 2024 low through the February 2025 high.
Notice I don’ t mention any numbers most folks are familiar with.
What I mean by this is I’ m not making a guess on yield being 170 bushels per acre( bpa), 180 bpa, 200 bpa or 150 bpa. Why? Because I don’ t care, but more importantly it doesn’ t matter. Those numbers from the USDA always come with an asterisk and are simply a way for people to keep score using imaginary numbers. If someone in western Nebraska looks at the monitor on her combine and sees an average yield of 173 bpa, yet the USDA puts the“ national average” at 185 bpa, which number is more valuable to that producer?
Why Local Realities Matter Most
Additionally, that same producer in western Nebraska has to work with the supply and demand in his( or her) area, starting with a local basis then working out to regional, state and so on, depending on how far and how much expense they want to have in trucking it to another terminal. U. S. supply and demand guesses mean nothing when it comes down to actually making money on a crop.
But that idea never seems to gain as much attention as the hubbub surrounding government reports. Except for now, when those same reports have gone away indefinitely. For those of us who know, there will always be markets.
Market Minute
• Watch May – July spreads for early planting signals.
• Local basis will tell you more than any national average.
• Remember: corn and soy don’ t care about politics— only supply and demand.
About the Author
Darin Newsom has been working with markets in general for nearly 40 years, dating back to Black Monday 1987. Over that time, he has worked in local grain elevators, first dumping trucks then as a merchandiser, before becoming a commodity broker and advisor. That eventually led him to DTN where he spent 15 years as the company’ s senior market analyst before going out on his own with Darin Newsom Analysis, Inc.
These days, he also has the title of senior analyst for Barchart. Along the way, he has developed his own way of analyzing markets in every sector, always proudly reminding people that he is not an economist.
November 2025 | www. FarmersHotLine. com | 17