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Africa and Latin America and improving infrastructure for grain transport. This kind of proactive approach has not only helped offset the decline in exports to China but has also strengthened our relationships and markets across various regions.”
Ruhland added that while soybean trade with China has“ sharply diminished,” the broader trade picture is more optimistic than it might seem.
“ U. S. soy exports show expanded access and strengthening relationships across Asia, Africa and Latin America – an international outcome of the industry since 2018,” she noted.“ That said, China is a critical market for U. S. soybeans, and efforts to retain and grow this market will remain essential to the health of the U. S. soybean industry.”
The Costs of Change
Diversification doesn’ t come cheap. Shifting away from China may strengthen long-term resilience, but it has created financial strain for many U. S. producers and farmers.
“ Losing a buyer that normally purchases over one-third of U. S. soybean exports sharply impacts margins and acreage decisions,” Ruhland said.“ This level of market disruption is never good, especially in the short term, and this is no exception.”
Recent reporting has found that U. S. soybean farmers have seen input costs increase. Tariffs on chemicals and parts, and supply-chain disruptions have increased costs by 20 % to 30 % in some inputs. With China stepping back, unfilled export orders and storage constraints have become more difficult.
“ This situation, combined with myriad existing market factors and disruptions, exposed vulnerabilities in on-farm liquidity,” explains Ruhland.“ Elevated input costs and limited storage capacity, although that has expanded since the 2018 trade disruption, have pressured working capital, particularly for Midwestern producers who are holding inventory to wait for better prices.”
Farmers are adapting, however. Some are reducing acreage, while others are investing in own-farm storage or shifting to other crops.
Other Factors at Play
China’ s pullback, Ruhland said, stems from a mix of geopolitical, structural and economic forces.
“ It’ s not a simple formula,” she explained.“ Tariffs on U. S. soybeans, currency effects and China’ s feed reform policies have all curtailed imports.”
Chinese buyers have been consciously sourcing more from
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