Feature

U. S. soybean growers turn disruption into opportunity by finding new buyers and building value at home.

By Mara Watts

In 2025, U. S. soybean shipments to China dropped nearly 39 % by volume, a steep decline for what was once the largest buyer of American soybeans. This disruption has sent shockwaves through the farming community, leaving the future of soybean production and sales up in the air.

To understand what the industry and farmers can expect, Polly Ruhland, senior managing director in FTI Consulting’ s Food, Ag and Beverage practice and former CEO of the United Soybean Board( USB), shares her thoughts and expertise.

At USB, Ruhland helped guide more than $ 120 million in program investments, driving innovation in biotechnology, production improvement, sustainability and research and development for soy-based industrial products.

“ The soybean industry has been working in response to China’ s decline in purchases since the trade tensions began in 2018,” Ruhland said.“ For example, industry organizations like the U. S. Soybean Export Council led industry efforts to diversify U. S. export markets as one notable effort.”

Trade Disruption Equals Structural Reset

Before 2018, the U. S. and China had a strong relationship surrounding soybeans. Large shipments were sent to feed China’ s livestock, supporting U. S. acreage, infrastructure and market expectations. But as the trade war intensified, China shifted. Ruhland said the industry recognized the danger early on:“ The industry realized during President Trump’ s first term that China’ s reduced purchases, due to trade disruption, represented a significant threat to the market. This threat could well result in a structural market reset, not just a shortterm disruption, and that has happened. At that time, leading organizations and companies came together to initiate diversification initiatives.”

By 2025, the result was clear – China’ s share of U. S. soybean exports has fallen to about 29 %, down from more than 50 %. According to Ruhland, countries such Mexico and those in the European Union now account for more than 20 % of total exports.

“ We’ ve seen growth in exports to other countries, too,” she noted.“ U. S. exports to Egypt, for example, rose year-over-year, and we’ re seeing similar increases in countries like Colombia and Vietnam.”

Although these markets don’ t measure up to China by any means, Ruhland says they do show the efforts of the sector to diversify and build global market strength.

Finding New Buyers

Expanding into new markets is a large part of a broader strategy. Although they [ new markets ] are smaller now, they’ re less volatile and less concentrated.

“ U. S. soybean companies and organizations also are focusing on promoting sustainability to appeal to European buyers,” Ruhland said,“ expanding our markets in Southeast Asia, North

November 2025 | www. FarmersHotLine. com | 9